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Caption: Figure 1.
The amount of excess variance in the visibility amplitudes expected for a GRMHD simulation (red lines, ﹩{\sigma }_{\mathrm{var}}^{2}﹩), after subtraction of the average image and normalization of the flux density by the light curve. Shown also are the typical thermal noise (black dashed line) and a 1% fractional systematic noise (green band) proportional to the mean image visibility amplitudes. The expected degree of refractive scattering is shown by the purple bands, with purple lines evaluated for a Gaussian source at the projected location of EHT data (see Paper III). The variability is shown about a mean image constructed on different observationally relevant timescales. The fractional systematic and variability noises have been averaged over azimuth and over the position angle of the diffractive screen.
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© 2022. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society.
