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3D CMZ. V. A New Orbital Model of Our Galaxy’s Center, Informed by Data Across the Electromagnetic Spectrum

  • Authors: Dani R. Lipman, Cara Battersby, Daniel Walker, Maïca Clavel, B.L. DuBois, Adam Ginsburg, Jonathan D. Henshaw, Ralf S. Klessen, Elisabeth A.C. Mills, Francisco Nogueras-Lara, Mattia C. Sormani, Robin G. Tress

Dani R. Lipman et al 2026 The Astrophysical Journal 1002 .

  • Provider: AAS Journals

Caption: Figure 3.

The methods used to infer NF positions of individual clouds in the CMZ can be combined in a Bayesian framework to create a posterior distribution of NF likely positions for a given cloud on a normalized scale of −1 (far) to +1 (near). The flux difference (orange dashed line) is used as a likelihood function, and is multiplied by distributions for the flux ratio (green), correlation coefficient (blue), absorption fraction (red), and star count ratios (yellow). A handful of clouds have prior data from X-rays (pink), or stellar kinematics (brown). After taking the product of the priors, we report the location of the peak (μ), the relative probability peak (A), and the 68% confidence interval (CI68), which are used to obtain a positional PDF posterior distribution (PPDF; black solid line). The peak of the posterior indicates the most likely NF position of the cloud. All distributions are normalized to unit integral probability.

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