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Assessing the Vera Rubin Observatory’s Ability to Discover Asteroid Impactors before They Collide with Earth

  • Authors: Qifeng Cheng, Daniel Scolnic, Jacob A. Kurlander, Ian Chow, Maryann Benny Fernandes

Qifeng Cheng et al 2026 The Astronomical Journal 171 .

  • Provider: AAS Journals

Caption: Figure 1.

Illustration of the synthetic impactor generation model. The plot compares the geocentric distance of a representative NEO before and after epoch adjustment. In Step 1, candidate NEOs are identified with nodal distances at ∼1 au. In Step 2, the object’s orbital epoch is shifted so that Earth and the NEO simultaneously arrive at the same ecliptic longitude, forcing an Earth-crossing geometry. The original orbit (black) has a minimum Earth-approach geocentric distance of 0.23 au, while the adjusted orbit (red) produces an impact configuration of closest geocentric approach at 0.03 au. This procedure preserves the object’s orbital elements (a, e, i) while altering the mean anomaly to generate a dynamically consistent synthetic impactor.

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