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Do Rocky Planets around M Stars Have Atmospheres? A Statistical Approach to the Cosmic Shoreline

  • Authors: Jegug Ih, Eliza M.-R. Kempton, Hannah Diamond-Lowe, Joshua Krissansen-Totton, Megan Weiner Mansfield, Qiao Xue, Nicholas Wogan, Matthew C. Nixon, Benjamin J. Hord

Jegug Ih et al 2026 The Astronomical Journal 172 .

  • Provider: AAS Journals

Caption: Figure 6.

The obtained 95% upper CI as a function of the total (charged) observing time. Here, the target list is generated by rank ordering planets by their ESM15. The baseline case, where we assumed a uniform prior and that all planets are bare blackbodies is shown as the solid line, which is also shown in Figure 5. The obtained CI using a Jeffreys prior (Beta(0.5,0.5)) and using (frequentist) Clopper–Pearson method is shown as dashed–dotted and dotted lines, respectively. The obtained CI assuming all planets have brighter surfaces of Bond albedo 0.2 and 0.4 are plotted in fainter colors. The vertical bars indicate the number of targets and the total number of hours based on different ESM15 cuts, as in Figure 5.

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