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Do Rocky Planets around M Stars Have Atmospheres? A Statistical Approach to the Cosmic Shoreline

  • Authors: Jegug Ih, Eliza M.-R. Kempton, Hannah Diamond-Lowe, Joshua Krissansen-Totton, Megan Weiner Mansfield, Qiao Xue, Nicholas Wogan, Matthew C. Nixon, Benjamin J. Hord

Jegug Ih et al 2026 The Astronomical Journal 172 .

  • Provider: AAS Journals

Caption: Figure 5.

The constraints on measured intrinsic probability of targets having an atmosphere for surveys of different sizes, where all potential targets are bare, blackbody rocks in the ground truth. The histograms show the posterior distribution from target lists based on different ESM cuts, as well as the total number of targets and hours. The vertical lines show the 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for each target list.

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