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Do Rocky Planets around M Stars Have Atmospheres? A Statistical Approach to the Cosmic Shoreline

  • Authors: Jegug Ih, Eliza M.-R. Kempton, Hannah Diamond-Lowe, Joshua Krissansen-Totton, Megan Weiner Mansfield, Qiao Xue, Nicholas Wogan, Matthew C. Nixon, Benjamin J. Hord

Jegug Ih et al 2026 The Astronomical Journal 172 .

  • Provider: AAS Journals

Caption: Figure 1.

Targets under consideration plotted in the escape speed–instellation space, in both the instantaneous bolometric flux and the estimated cumulative XUV flux. The targets are chosen from the DDT “Targets Under Consideration” list, which comprises 80 planets. The square markers indicate targets with existing or planned observations, except those in the Rocky Worlds DDT, while circles indicate all other targets. The color indicates the effective temperature of the host star. The sizes correspond to the ESM15 for each target. The injected Cosmic Shorelines are also plotted in yellow, drawn to be as low as allowed by existing observations or the solar system. The solar system planets are plotted in black. The estimated cumulative XUV flux uses the scaling from K. J. Zahnle & D. C. Catling (2017), which agrees with stellar age-based estimates to within a factor of ∼3 (B. Park Coy et al. 2024; E. K. Pass et al. 2025); the vertical width of the line reflects this uncertainty.

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