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Do Rocky Planets around M Stars Have Atmospheres? A Statistical Approach to the Cosmic Shoreline

  • Authors: Jegug Ih, Eliza M.-R. Kempton, Hannah Diamond-Lowe, Joshua Krissansen-Totton, Megan Weiner Mansfield, Qiao Xue, Nicholas Wogan, Matthew C. Nixon, Benjamin J. Hord

Jegug Ih et al 2026 The Astronomical Journal 172 .

  • Provider: AAS Journals

Caption: Figure 14.

Same as Figure 9, but for the Cosmic Shoreline hypotheses vs. the pessimist hypothesis, wherein no planet has an atmosphere. In the top panel, there are 12, 10, and 10 total targets in each row; in the bottom panel , there are 12, 9, and 9. Targets are ordered by the respective priority metric, such that targets farther to the right are farther on the wet side of the Cosmic Shoreline. The injected Cosmic Shoreline passes through TRAPPIST-1 c for the bolometric and K2-415 b for the XUV in bold. Using the pessimist hypothesis, rather than the random hypothesis, as the null hypothesis for the model to be compared to results in focusing more eclipses on the wet side of the Cosmic Shoreline.

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