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On the Exoplanet Yield of Gaia Astrometry

  • Authors: Caleb Lammers, Joshua N. Winn

Caleb Lammers and Joshua N. Winn 2026 The Astronomical Journal 171 .

  • Provider: AAS Journals

Caption: Figure 7.

Predictions of our semianalytic Gaia forecast model for DR5. The left panel shows the number of stars Gaia will search that could host a detectable planet, as a function of planet mass and semimajor axis. The right panel shows the number of forecasted planet detections as a function of planet mass and semimajor axis. Both adopt a detection threshold of Nσ = 1 (see Equation (7)). Our model predicts that ≳106 stars could host a detectable planet (∼1 million in DR4 and ∼7 million in DR5), and ≳104 planets will be detected (∼14,000 in DR4 and ∼130,000 in DR5). The leftmost ridge comes from the statistics of searchable stars and the planet occurrence function (see Section 2.6). The falloff beyond ∼5.5 au is due to the restriction Porb ≲ 9.5 yr so that orbital motion can be distinguished from the star’s proper motion (see Section 3.1).

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