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Subsurface Water Ice Mapping on Mars: A Probabilistic Approach

  • Authors: Samuel W. Courville, Nathaniel E. Putzig, Gareth A. Morgan, Asmin Pathare, Colin M. Dundas, David M. H. Baker, Ali M. Bramson, Rachael H. Hoover, Stefano Nerozzi, Matthew R. Perry, Megan B. Russell, Hanna G. Sizemore

Samuel W. Courville et al 2026 The Planetary Science Journal 7 .

  • Provider: AAS Journals

Caption: Figure 16.

Two demonstrations of the Bayesian inversion method: (a) Measurements that constrain the subsurface dielectric permittivity to 8.0 ± 3.5, the thermal inertia to 889 ± 600 tiu, and the W﹩{}_{{dn}}﹩ to 17% ± 15% yield a low probability of ice in the subsurface, with maximum probability density at 0% ice. (b) Measurements that constrain the subsurface dielectric permittivity to 4.0 ± 1.0, the thermal inertia to 2000 ± 1600 tiu, and the W﹩{}_{{dn}}﹩ to 45% ± 15% yield a high probability of ice in the subsurface, with maximum probability density at 40% ice. The final posterior probability plot is the joint probability between each dataset. We create the marginal PDF for subsurface ice (the rightmost plots, rotated so the ice% axis aligns with the ternary plots) by integrating over the rock axis in the full ternary posterior distribution.

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