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Tabular Foundation Models for the Estimation of Probabilistic Quasar Photometric Redshifts in S-PLUS

  • Authors: Raquel R. Valença, Lilianne Nakazono, Rafael Izbicki, Marco Henrique de Almeida Inácio, Bruno Marcondes e Resende, Maycon Jorge Deláqua da Silva, Kiana Coimbra Buin Lins, Natanael M. Cardoso, Claudia Mendes de Oliveira

Raquel R. Valença et al 2026 The Astronomical Journal 172 .

  • Provider: AAS Journals

Caption: Figure 1.

PIT histograms for TabPFN 2.5, FlexZBoost, Flow-Spline, and MDN-deep. Panels are ordered by PIT-KS. The dotted line at density 1 marks the target uniform (0, 1) density; the gray band is the 95% pointwise binomial envelope expected under exact uniformity at this test-set size, and per-bin error bars are ±1 SE. TabPFN 2.5 shows the smallest aggregate PIT-KS among these methods and no large structured departure from uniformity. FlexZBoost has a comparable PIT-KS but shows excess mass near the boundaries, indicating overconfident tails. MDN-deep and Flow-Spline show milder central excesses, consistent with slight underconfidence.

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