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Improving Generalization and Uncertainty Quantification of Photometric Redshift Models

  • Authors: Jonathan Soriano, Tuan Do, Srinath Saikrishnan, Vikram Seenivasan, Bernie Boscoe, Jack Singal, Evan Jones

Jonathan Soriano et al 2026 The Astronomical Journal 171 .

  • Provider: AAS Journals

Caption: Figure 9.

Probabilistic calibration assessment of GalaxiesML (top) and TransferZ (bottom) predicted pdfs by BNNs after applying split conformal prediction. The probability integral transform (PIT) is a qualitative assessment of pdfs with good calibration indicated by a uniform distribution U[0,1]. Most GalaxiesML PIT distributions are uniform with BNN-2 showing a U-shaped distribution, an indication of underdispersed pdfs. On the other hand, the TransferZ PIT distributions are right-skewed, indicating the presence of a systematic bias. All PIT distributions have spikes at the edges caused by outliers; the height of these spikes is model and data dependent.

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