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Overfitting Affects the Reliability of Radial Velocity Mass Estimates of the V1298 Tau Planets

Authors: Sarah Blunt, Adolfo Carvalho, Trevor J. David, Charles Beichman, Jon K. Zink, Eric Gaidos, Aida Behmard, Luke G. Bouma, Devin Cody, Fei Dai, Daniel Foreman-Mackey, Sam Grunblatt, Andrew W. Howard, Molly Kosiarek, Heather A. Knutson, Ryan A. Rubenzahl, Corey Beard, Ashley Chontos, Steven Giacalone, Teruyuki Hirano, Marshall C. Johnson, Jack Lubin, Joseph M. Akana Murphy, Erik A Petigura, Judah Van Zandt, Lauren Weiss

Sarah Blunt et al 2023 The Astronomical Journal 166 .

Provider: AAS Journals

Caption: Figure 4.

Same as Figure 2, except that the model prediction is computed by conditioning on a randomly selected 80% subset of the HARPS-N data, as described in the text; the residuals are computed for the 20% subset that was held out. Takeaway: the effect seen in Figure 2 cannot be explained by instrument- or wavelength-dependent systematics, because the same larger residuals are seen within the data taken by only HARPS-N.

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