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Constraining the Planetary Obliquity Distribution of Warm Jupiters

  • Authors: Caleb Lammers, Joshua N. Winn

Caleb Lammers and Joshua N. Winn 2026 The Astronomical Journal 172 .

  • Provider: AAS Journals

Caption: Figure 4.

CDF of the median obliquity, θ50, from our hierarchical Bayesian analysis. The upper horizontal axis translates θ50 into the concentration κ of the Fisher distribution. Black curves are posteriors based on the full sample, assuming all planets have f  =  0.1, comparable to Saturn. The blue curve is the posterior assuming f  =  0.06, comparable to Jupiter. The red curve is based on half the planets; weaker constraints are obtained, reflecting the fact that useful information is distributed across all systems. The green curve shows the posterior assuming f is assigned via Equation (12). Assuming f  =  0.1 or f  =  0.06, the data imply θ50  <  12 or θ50  <  66, respectively, at 90% confidence.

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