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Accounting for Transit Timing Detectability: Biases in Planetary Radius and Orbital Period

  • Authors: Skylar D'Angiolillo, Daniel Fabrycky, Mariah G. MacDonald

Skylar D’Angiolillo et al 2026 The Astronomical Journal 171 .

  • Provider: AAS Journals

Caption: Figure 4.

Kaplan–Meier plot depicting the data from Table 3 of H16 reconstructed into “weeks.” Here, we treat each set of seven consecutive transits as its own KOI to remove the bias of short-period planets being observed more frequently. The blue solid function corresponds to short-period “weeks” (P ≤ 50 days), the orange dashed function corresponds to medium-period “weeks” (50 < P < 65 days), and the green dotted function corresponds to long-period “weeks” (P ≥ 65 days). The survival function dictates what percentage of KOIs in the group remain undetected at that level of normalized OC scatter. The long tail of the short-period planet distribution highlights that 40% of such planets are still undetected with a normalized OC scatter of approximately 0.0031, whereas no planets with medium or long orbital periods require such extreme scatter to be detected. By exploring each KOI as a set of seven transits, we find that KOIs with inherently short orbital periods require more OC scatter, and therefore greater TTVs, than long-period planets to be detected.

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