Decision tree for ESPERTA forecasts of ≥S2 SPEs (1995–2014). PT—prediction threshold; CN—correct null; H—Hit; FA—False Alarm. The symbol * indicates that there are six other misses (MISSes in Table 2) from visible disk flares that did not reach the M2 level. Four other ≥S2 events were associated with <M2 flares from behind the solar limb.