ESPERTA probability contours for prediction of ≥S2 SPEs for three solar longitude bands. Symbols: open circles outside or between contours—correct null forecasts that were blue stars in Figure 2 or blue diamonds between the 0.28 and 0.35 contours in the top panel of Figure 2; open circles inside (inner) contours—False Alarms; stars—≥S2 SPEs not predicted (Misses); diamonds—correctly predicted ≥S2 SPEs (Hits); ≥S2 SPEs not preceded by ≥M2 flares—MISSES (not plotted). Color coding gives the NOAA Radiation Storms scale (Table 1).