Number of early types vs. redshift in the HNM at ﹩H_{160}< 24.0﹩ shown by the shaded histogram. Two PLE model predictions are plotted based on the Marzke et al. local luminosity function: the red histogram has ﹩z_{f}=3﹩, and the green histogram has ﹩z_{f}=4﹩. The PLE models assume all stars are formed in a 0.1 Gyr burst with solar metallicity at the given z_f. The blue histogram shows a hierarchical merging prediction, along with scatter bars that show the 1 σ variation to be expected due to large‐scale structure. The hierarchical merging model is described in Somerville et al. (2001). All model calculations assume ﹩\Lambda =0.7﹩, ﹩\Omega =0.3﹩, and ﹩h=0.70﹩.