Stochastic rotational-fission cascade for rubble piles (﹩{D}_{{\rm{lim}}}=200﹩ m) using S. A. Jacobson et al. (2016) statistics. Shaded bands represent 10–90 and 25–75 percentiles of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations validating analytical models. (A1)–(A2) Single-event distributions of mass loss fraction f and per-event diameter retention ratio ﹩{D}^{{\prime} }/D\equiv r={(1+q)}^{-1/3}﹩; bound binaries (red), asteroid pairs (blue), re-accretion (cyan). (B1) Multiplicative diameter decay D_N/D₀ versus event count N. (B2) Expected event count N(D₀) to reach ﹩{D}_{{\rm{lim}}}﹩. (C) Normalized cumulative evolution time ﹩{\mathbb{E}}[{T}^{* }]/{\tau }_{\,\rm{YORP,0}\,}﹩ versus initial diameter D₀, showing the mean–median gap near ﹩{D}_{{\rm{lim}}}﹩ that closes at larger scales as the central limit theorem restores symmetry (asymptotic limit at 4.61).